UCF Knights -9.5 at Florida Atlantic Owls
Over/Under 69

Last week, I fell to the week one trap of overthinking and not being logical. Sometimes you don’t have to crunch a bunch of numbers, and look at how teams did ATS on the road or home in the previous season to see that one team is just better than the other.

UCF has earned the right to just be the team to ride with, no matter the spread. In this case, they are going up against Florida Atlantic, and are only a 9.5 point favorite. Last week, I would’ve said “Nah, that line is suspicious.” This week, I’m all over it and here is why:

Florida Atlantic lost both of their stud running backs to the NFL draft, and replacing Devin Singletary and Kerrieth Whyte will be a tough task. James Charles, Alabama transfer BJ Emmons, Larry McCammon III and freshman Kelvin Dean are all going to be fighting for snaps this season. Last week it was McCammon and Charles, going up against the Buckeyes defense and combining for an forgettable 47 yard performance.

Source: Michael Reaves/Getty Images North America)

We didn’t learn anything about UCF last week in their 62-0 victor over Florida A&M, except that regardless of the system or competition, quarterback Brandon Wimbush is still a quarterback who completes 50% of his passes. I’m expecting a switch to Dillon Gabriel more sooner than later but that’s a story for another day. . .

UCF has become the non-power-five standard in the NCAA for some time now and that trend will most likely continue in 2019.

Last season UCF beat FAU by a score of 56-36. A big reason for those 36 points scored by FAU were the combined efforts of Singletary and Whyte gave the Owls 215 rushing yards. The dynamic duo were also responsible for all five touchdowns scored by FAU.

Last season UCF was 3-1 as the road favorite ATS and FAU was 2-4 ATS at home.

The value here on the line is too much to pass up.

The Pick: UCF -9.5