The Line: Toledo +13.5 at Kentucky

Over / Under: 62

Kentucky had a ridiculous 10-3 campaign in 2018 and Beating Vegas was all over it. Two of their stars Benny Snell and Josh Allen are now in the NFL as well as their talented safeties Mike Edwards and Darius West. . .

Kentucky should still pull off a winning season, but it won’t be as magical as last year’s ride. This is because a lot of the offense will ride on quarterback Terry Wilson’s shoulders and Wilson, just isn’t that good.

Wilson completed 67% of his passes, which looks great as a stat on its own, but the most yards he threw in a game last season was 267 and finished the year with 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Only two starters from last year’s offensive line return for the Wildcats, which means Wilson will be under more duress than he was used to last season.

Source: Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America

Wilson’s inability to threaten with the deep ball is music to the ears of a Toledo secondary that gave up 256 passing yards a game at a completion percentage of 61%. Unfortunately for Toledo though, they also gave up 180 yards a game on the ground as well.

Toledo has lost their best offensive linemen, Bryce Harris for the season due to a knee injury but the offensive line still has two hogs on the line in Cameron Bell and Yazeed Atariwa. They helped get freshman Bryan Koback to 917 yards rushing last season, as well backup running back Shakif Seymour to 565 yards at 4.7 a clip. It’s important to note that last season the Rockets lost starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni to injury, and that set things back for this offense.

Last season the Rockets were double-digit underdogs only twice (to Miami and Fresno State) and loss both of those games by nearly double the underdog margin. Things get more confusing when seeing that last season, Kentucky was a double digit favorite five times last year and only covered their given margin of victory, once.

The public’s money is going to go with Kentucky because of last season’s success and “Cinderalla-like” appeal. These teams are more even on paper than one would like to think and Toledo hangs around longer than expected.

The Pick: Toledo +13.5