G.W. Gras

Senior Writer for The Bears Brawl and Lead Host of The Bears Brawl Podcast.

UNLV Rebels +16.5 at Northwestern  Wildcats

Over/Under 54.5

UNLV quarterback Armani Rogers is said to still be the starter for UNLV going into this week, although his recent struggles have raised some concern. Rodgers wasn’t the most fluid passing quarterback to being with, but when you’re completing less than 50% of your passes and at an average of less than five yards per pass, nobody would be surprised if he is benched.

Source: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Rogers’ backup Kenyon Oblad has showed more presence in the pocket completing 70% of his passes for 9.2 yards a pass.

Regardless of who is under center, the focal point of the offense is running back Charles Williams, who is averaging 9.1 yards a carry. That average will be challenged by a Northwestern pass defense that allows 3.4 yards a carry. Even after calculating the SMASH average, Northwestern would have some issues containing Williams, who should still get six yards per rush (which is UNLV team rushing average).

Defensively, UNLV is just as good against the rush, holding opponents to 3.2 yards a rush, while the Northwestern Wildcats are struggling on the ground to get anything over three yards a carry.

Northwestern opened the season at Stanford and lost 17-7, which was a pretty predictable outcome.

UNLV is currently 1-1. Beating Southern Utah 56-23, and then faced with a legit competitor in Arkansas State, they lost 43-17. The good thing here is that, both Arkansas State and Southern Utah’s offenses looks like the Los Angeles Rams when compared to the Northwestern Wildcats.

Northwestern will struggle, let alone put away the Rebels by more than 16 points.

The Pick: UNLV +16.5